News on August 15; Market participants believe that the main factor affecting copper prices in the future lies in the macro perspective, especially the adjustment of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. After the domestic epidemic is brought under control, copper prices are expected to fluctuate significantly.
Since June, affected by many factors, Shanghai Dong (69920, -330.00, -0.47%) continues to fluctuate. Analysts say future tightening of macroeconomic policies is inevitable, but in the final phase of liquidity easing, fundamentals piling up should improve in the short term. term and copper prices will have a better chance of performing from August to October.
From a macro perspective, data released by the US Department of Labor shows that the number of new non-farm jobs in July was 943,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% month-on-month, both Both were better than expected, showing that the US economy has recovered significantly. "This is further away from the conditions for the US to reduce easing. Expectations for a reduction in easing have increased sharply. A strong increase in US dollar and US bond interest rates will have a larger impact on financial properties. copper in the short term," said Li Jintao, a non-ferrous metals analyst at Yide Futures. Over the medium to long term, expectations for US debt and inflation are both rising, suggesting that market risk appetite has picked up again and investors are more optimistic about a future economic recovery. Historically, the policy contraction cycle has been accompanied by an improvement in the economic situation, and the attributes of the copper sector have been strengthened. In the context of the development of dual carbon, copper is an important raw material and there is still room for demand growth. Moreover, the current liquidity is still loose and has not yet reached the actual tightening stage. The emotional impact that Taper predicts will be quickly digested.
Basically, Li Jintao analyzes that domestic smelters enter the maintenance season in June and July, plus the adoption of power-cutting measures in many places, which will further hinder the construction industry. copper smelting capacity, especially in the southwest region this summer because of a shortage. water and power shortages. Nothing has eased up yet and new smelting capacity will be forced to overhaul in August. At the same time, new production capacity will also be postponed and electrolytic copper production is expected to decline in August compared to August. with the previous month. As for scrap copper, due to the resurgence of the Southeast Asian epidemic, scrap copper imports have been declining for several months. At the same time, the price of copper has dropped to a low. Stimulates recovery of refined copper consumption. In addition, the copper mine union Escondida, Chile's largest copper mine abroad, is negotiating over wages. Workers at the Andina copper mine and the Caserones copper mine decided to go on strike. Although short-term strikes will not have a significant impact on supply, the process of resolving the strike needs continued attention.
Regarding demand, Mr. Li Jintao said, because this year is the first year of real estate completion, the finished house market is selling hot, the off-season market is not weak. "From a special bond issuance perspective, as of July, 37% of the domestic special bond issuance progress has been completed. Post-imposition financial potential to boost demand for the remainder of the year half a year, completing the grid investment reaching 36.7% of the investment plan, and in the second half of the year, the State orders the power grid plus the reconstruction project after the flood disaster Ha Nam will support strongly consumes electrolytic copper."
From an inventory perspective, Li Jintao analyzes that the domestic inventory situation has recently stalled due to poor logistics control due to the epidemic, and the spot premium has also decreased. The current epidemic is in a critical stage that needs to be contained and spread. The optimism is that after two more incubation periods, the spread is expected to be essentially under control. Then, with the release of demand, the inventory rate will increase rapidly. At the same time, the window to import domestic refined copper has been opened, and the pace of inventory clearance in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has been smoother than in previous years; COMEX's inventory rate is also faster than in previous years, and global copper inventories continue the inventory trend.
In addition, in July this year, there are two dumping reserves in the country. Li Jintao said that the correct dumping and storage can ensure that the material reaches the user downstream directly and avoid speculation; on the other hand, it can effectively expand market supply and greatly alleviate the predicament of high procurement costs for downstream processing companies, especially micro, small and medium enterprises. . The policy of dumping reserves will continue until the end of the year, but marginal dumping pressure in the market will gradually wane, thus mainly affecting the premium structure of the spot market.
Analyst Liu Peiyang of Zhongyuan Futures Shanghai Copper said that from a fundamental point of view, the supply situation did not push copper prices up and continued to rise, and that the main factor affecting copper prices in the future lies in the macro perspective. especially the Fed's monetary policy adjustment. Li Jintao believes that after the domestic epidemic is brought under control, copper prices are expected to fluctuate significantly. (Daily Futures Contract)
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